The advent of low season is a good time to judge if the people you know are of the “glass is half full or half empty” schools of thought.
As described in our leader column on Page 4 now is the time when the “half empty” folk will reveal themselves by their words and deeds.
So we asked some property professionals for their thoughts on the low season.
Do they cut back on all expenditure, sit tight and wait until high season arrives again? Do they redouble their efforts to chase the business that is still there? Do they start looking for a nice stretch of sand to develop property on or simply use it to bury their heads in?
How do they think the low season will effect them – if at all? Here is what they told us...
Marketing manager for Apus Condominium close to Carrefour, Jason Payne, said: “Actually I’m rather tired of the whole high season/low season paranoia. Yes, this time of year it’s naturally quieter but the tyre kickers are greatly reduced leaving just mainly serious buyers out there.
“July, August and September were great months for us last year, and isn’t this what some people claim to be the lowest of low season? ‘High season’ for us was bad when I consider the ratio of prospects to converted sales. When I look at the year as a whole, our sales volumes remained very similar every month.”
He added: “I honestly do not feel for us as a developer, that the so-called season makes much difference at all.”
More time for customers
Heiner Moessing of Siam Properties, the brokers in Pattaya South, said: “In ‘normal’ times we hardly felt a difference between high and low season.
Some of our customers even preferred to come in the low season as we have more time for them and they might get better terms through negotiations.
“The world economy and political stability here have more impact on our business.
“But as I always say: now is the time to buy, as a buyer you have a wide selection of properties to choose from, you can negotiate prices and – sometimes even more important – the terms of payments. I myself am looking now to buy a nice property.”
Mark Bowling, of Colliers in Thappraya Road, said: “I believe the property market here is entering the recovery stage of a cycle as confidence returns and is likely to improve considerably in the next 12-18 months.
“However, if the political situation worsens it has the potential to knock back tourism, foreign investment and the property market for the foreseeable future.
“Certain currencies such as GBP and Euro are performing badly against the strong Baht. However, I believe there could be an improvement of the GBP if the Conservatives gain victory in the up-coming general election, resulting in increased confidence in the British economy.
“The US Dollar isn’t fairing too badly against the Baht, which may explain why many Russian buyers with funds deposited in dollar accounts outside of the CIS are relatively high in numbers.
“I believe the opening of the new highway between North and Central Pattaya will make living in East Pattaya a much more desirable alternative to many and, in turn, is likely to encourage an upwards trend in pricing. Buyers who wisely pick up a ‘fire sale’ or reduced price property could expect to see a large increase on their investment in the short- to medium-term as more people decide to opt for the quiet life on the ‘dark side’.
“These days Pattaya is slowly cleaning up its image and is much more appealing, not only to foreigners but to Thais living in Bangkok, the same visitors who went to Hua Hin in preference and wouldn’t have been seen dead here a few years ago.”
Second home
Mark added: “When we see the opening of the new rail link, it will really make Pattaya the number one choice for Bangkok residents as a second home.
“Many developers in Pattaya are building good quality, cleverly designed, entry level property at easily affordable prices and there is no shortage of buyers for this type of property.
“Investors who pick up a bargain in one of the many low priced developments can expect to see a good return on their investment as the market continues to improve and the desire for many to live here returns.
“I think the high end of the market will experience a much more difficult time in recovering, as possibly many of these higher earners have been affected more so than others by the global recession. It’s evident to see that many condos in some of the almost complete, high profile, high-end developments are now offered on the market at the pre-construction prices from two-three years ago or less.”
Paul Davies, of KCR Homefinders in Siam Country Club Road, said: “What low season? There wasn’t a high one to begin with! I am not going to rabbit on about the reasons why – especially given recent events – suffice to say it all adds negativity to potential clients’ mind-set, resulting in inquiry levels dropping and, in turn, sales.
“Over the next few months we shall be doing what we normally do at this time of year. Pull the office (my living room) back together, clear out the accumulated junk and rubbish. Revamp the website and basically prepare for the next round of agency campaigning and marketing. So, by September, we shall be in a position to push forward into the new season.”
Another agent thinking about her website is Anne-Marie of Delight Real Estate on Thappraya Road. She said: “I will use the low season to upgrade my office and concentrate on my new website – www.delight-realestate.com.
“It has already launched but needs a lot more work before it is as client friendly as I have in mind. I want to double the amount of listings that I currently offer and before the high season starts I hope to be fully ready with all these things.
“I believe we have had the worst and things are looking better. Confidence is back and Hopefully the political unrest in Bangkok will not last too long.”
Satisfactory sales
Director of Sales and Marketing for Logans Thailand, Pasi Marjamaki, said: “We have a decent so-called high season behind us having sold a satisfactory amount of mid- or higher-end units.
“Prior to the recent high season we did extensive research and came to the conclusion that smaller condo units at good locations represented the best way forward. Based on this we created the 75-unit Avatara condominium on Mae Phim beach for just this target group and, after five months of sales, it is nearly sold out. Construction started at the end of March.
“We strongly believe the market trend will continue as it is now for at least one year more before it starts to improve in the case of mid/high-end purchases.
“We don’t really expect there to be any major drop compared to the high season so we keep focusing on the markets and products we know are working for us at the moment.”
Pasi added: “Our rental management is receiving more and more bookings and enquiries for the summer season and especially for the next high season compared to the previous year so the coming months/year shows better recovery.
“Certainly we will not ‘take it easy’ during the low season but work harder to be ready when everything goes up again.”
Stuart Sutton, of Jomtien Property, in Thappraya Road, said: “Business is surprisingly good, especially taking into account the strong Baht and renewed political upheaval. I’m not expecting much of a ‘low’ season.”
Tim Gladwin, of the nearby brokers Sallmanns, said: “Since the turn of the year I have been surprised by both the number of tourists in Pattaya and by the amount of activity in the local property market.
“For some reason, 2010 seemed to bring a burst of optimism with it. We have been surprisingly busy with mostly genuine buyers so far.
“However, the question is whether this will continue into the traditional low season. From a personal point of view, the exceptionally busy second half of the high season has reinforced my confidence in Pattaya’s future. It is a city with broad appeal to a wide variety of people from diverse parts of the world, and that is perhaps one of the reasons why it has proved to be so resilient in the face of the global economic downturn.
Bargain hunters
“I would be surprised if business didn’t slow down, but I believe that, in spite of the various and undoubted challenges faced by the market, bargain hunters and motivated sellers will keep things ticking over, until such time as a genuine recovery takes place.”
Kevin Hurst, of Pattaya Jomtien Property in the same soi as Immigration Department, said: “I feel this low season isn’t going be easy, but the Pattaya property market has proved quite resilient and is sure to continue to grow.”
Last word goes to Cees Cuijpers of the brokers and developers Town & Country Property in South Pattaya Road. He said: “At the time of writing it is Songkran, which is not the best ‘season’ for realtors selling their properties here in Pattaya.
“However – low season or high season – it doesn’t make a great difference, provided no (further) silly things happen with the economy OR politics...
“In fact, overall we see that often the low-season brings us more ‘seasoned’ buyers and investors. During peak-season you can have your hands full dealing with those just ‘dreaming’ of living
in Thailand.”
Cees added: “According the Fiscal Policy Office, the Thai economy will rebound next year with a growth of 3.5 per cent.
“Not as good as the growth forecasts for some other Asian countries, but not so bad either for a country that has been through three years of political turmoil and a world economic crisis.
‘Country’ on its own
“But hey, please don’t forget we are focussing on Pattaya which, in my opinion, is a ‘country’ on its own here in Thailand!
“Thailand, with all of its political problems; it is amazing to see how Pattaya’s day-to-day living simply continues including Pattaya’s steady growth on the property market.
“Being here for 12 years, I can say that only since the start of Northshore (Raimon Land) in Q3/04, property in Pattaya really rolled-over and kicked-off.
“And not to be stopped for this year...! New project launches continue to be announced and even some of the ones considered dead have suddenly awoken!
“It is going to be another good year – perhaps not much bigger or better than recently, but growth! Remember, property investments/dealings can always be made whether the market is depressed or on its peak.
“Like Donald Trump said: ‘I try to learn from the past, but I plan for the future by focusing exclusively on the present. That’s where the fun is’.” Ω |
