Choose any metaphor or adage you wish. Is there a wind of change (for the better) about to blow our way? Are the green shoots of recovery just a short way from springing up around us? Is Lady Luck about to smile on us?
Or will the revival of the local property market have nothing to do with wind, gardening or good fortune?
These are the types of questions I’ve been posing to those involved in real estate on the Eastern Seaboard, writes John Davids.
And the answers they have been coming up are many and varied but they are pretty much in agreement about one thing. In the words of the pop song by D:ream which was adopted by Britain’s Labour Party in their landslide election victory back in 1997: “Things can only get better.”
So what are the people of property saying?
Paul Davies of KCR Homefinder said: “I smell change in the air ... not a great change but a definite and positive softening of attitude among a good number of people responding to my website and other advertising and marketing systems.
“I have noticed much renewed interest from buyers and now have quite a number of serious people looking at houses, condos, land and commercial property.
“Granted some are just looking but most are asking specific and sometimes pointed questions regarding, among others, ownership issues. This tells me people are now again interested in buying rather than threshold kicking. So I say yes, things are on the up, albeit early days yet.”

Calculated decisions
Paul continued: “The bargain hunters are here in numbers and those with experience in the Thai way are making calculated decisions on value for money mid- and long-term investments.
“It’s also encouraging to see more long term ex-pat tenants coming on stream which gives me a huge degree of confidence that industry is still keen to trade in Thailand. This can only be good for all on the Eastern Seaboard.
“We are, though, counselling sellers and landlords to remain considerate when setting sale and rental expectations as there is a lot of property available and the market is, to a degree, fierce.
“I see on some forums a few people saying Pattaya is dead, she isn’t, she may be a little shell-shocked, but she sure ain’t dead and will recover within the next year or so and when she does prices will climb once more. Viva la Pattaya!”
Slightly less effusive was Scott Malone of HomeHunters Group. He said: “I feel that recovery is most certainly coming – when is the question on most people’s minds. I feel that we should experience an upturn in property buyers/renters and investors in the next six months but the full effects will be felt in the 6-12 month period.
“Developers with the funds to proceed would be advised to invest now so that they are better positioned to take advantage when the recovery comes. Is it a risk? Sure, but they are not called entrepreneurs for nothing! The big question is where is the money to ensure these projects get finished – the banks are ultra-cautious, equity investors want a certainty and everyday buyers are hurting.
“I think that there is still a strong market of potential buyers just awaiting more global stability and the ones with cash are either holding on to it or putting it into land for long-term growth/security.”
John Seymour, MD of Northern Thai, had this to say: “Is Pattaya about to see a fair wind blow across the beaches? Are there signs of improvement in the property market? We are all waiting for the good news.
“You will have heard the saying bad news travels fast and this is true to a certain extent. What also happens is that bad news gets distorted and changed as it flies along. What you hear is seldom the true facts when it comes to bad news. On the other hand, people tend to be cautious in forwarding good news and so there is always a lag in the time it takes for good news to reach our ears.
“I think that we are seeing signs of a turnaround in the global economy with some of the financial heavies like China showing growth in their economy in the second quarter of the year. If the big players are seeing improvements in their economy, then it won’t be long before the smaller Asian economies start to pick up.”
John continued: “Our company has seen an increase in the number of customers through the doors over the last two months and we are closing more deals now than we did in the latter part of last year and the earlier part of this year.
“So is customer confidence coming back? I think what we are seeing now is the speculators picking up the good deals ahead of the more cautious buyers. But that is a good sign, as the speculators always surf the wave ahead of the mainstream buyer. We are also getting a lot more enquiries for long-term rentals. That to me is a sign that there is a return of buyer confidence and the cautious buyer will rent and get a feel for the place before they buy.
“There has also been
an increase in commercial enquiries and this is ahead of any upturn in the number of tourist travelling to our shores. Buyers are looking at Thailand with a long-term future investment in mind.
“Those buyers who bought off plan and have had to wait longer to move their contracts on will be very careful in the future. Some of them have had to sell the contracts back to the developer and others have sold for less than their expected return. “But, even with this in mind, very few people who invested in property in Thailand have made a loss. Most have made a healthy profit so buying here is not as daunting as it might be in the UK or the USA.
“I believe that there is a fair wind heading our way and it won’t be long in reaching our sandy shores.”

More activity
Mark Bowling of relative Pattaya newcomers Colliers International was also in a positive frame of mind. He said: “I’m optimistic. We are definitely getting more people walking though the door now and there is generally more activity.
“Pattaya always bounces back. It has the ability to heal a lot quicker than many other places because people enjoy living here. There is always light at the end of the tunnel; always a market for quality properties.
“Most of the homes on our books are already built. We check out new projects thoroughly in a bid to ensure that our customers do not end up disappointed.
“We are concentrating our efforts on the expats living and working here. Those that don’t have to bring money over.”

Exchange rates
The question of money, and exchange rates in particular, was very much on the mind of Jens Klein of Petch Properties, which is marketing The Cove at Wong-Amat. He said: “I believe that investors are already starting to return – actually, they never left!
“One thing is for sure ... if the currency exchange of the UK pound/Euro had been better during the past month, then even more people would have bought a unit. So, in my opinion, it comes down to exchange rates.
“It’s not that people hesitate to invest in The Cove or elsewhere – they hesitate to exchange currency at this moment.
“We all know that the Cove is different to other projects and that our buyers always have the money, regardless of global problems and so on.
“Another thought ... where else in the world can you get such good deals other than in Asia and here in Thailand in particular? I mean the US market has got too many properties on sale and Europe is too expensive. Once buyers are able to obtain loans again in their home countries, they will invest in Asia – and, of course, if we talk about Asia then there is actually only Thailand – sea, sun, fun and lifestyle. And everything at an affordable price.”
Jens concluded: “From September we will see an increase in investments in line with better currency exchange rates – provided anti-government protesters remain calm.”
Another condo developer – Tudor Villas with Tudor Court – can see improvements. Adam Kuhl said: “There does appear to be a light at the end of the tunnel.
“Although actual sales are still sluggish, genuine enquiries are on the up with more and more potential customers taking an active interest in the market.
“As long as there are no further flies in the ointment with regards to internal Thai politics or external financial issues, it could be a time where confidence will slowly increase and those who make the leap now could reap the benefits of a wise investment in the
near future.” Ω